Blue Bird’s third quarter was characterized by robust revenue growth and margin expansion, prompting a positive market reaction. Management attributed the performance to disciplined pricing, operational improvements, and continued strength in alternative powertrains, particularly electric vehicles. CEO John Wyskiel highlighted that, despite ongoing tariff volatility, the company maintained its lead in alternative-fuel buses and benefited from stable demand, stating, “Our EV demand is stable despite the tariff pricing uncertainty and EPA funding.” Investments in manufacturing automation and efficiency further supported the quarter’s strong results, while overall bus sales volumes saw modest year-over-year growth.
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Blue Bird (BLBD) Q3 CY2025 Highlights:
- Revenue: $409.4 million vs analyst estimates of $380 million (16.9% year-on-year growth, 7.7% beat)
- Adjusted EPS: $1.32 vs analyst estimates of $1.02 (29.1% beat)
- Adjusted EBITDA: $67.9 million vs analyst estimates of $54.26 million (16.6% margin, 25.1% beat)
- EBITDA guidance for the upcoming financial year 2026 is $220 million at the midpoint, in line with analyst expectations
- Operating Margin: 12.3%, up from 7.3% in the same quarter last year
- Sales Volumes rose 2.1% year on year (16.5% in the same quarter last year)
- Market Capitalization: $1.66 billion
While we enjoy listening to the management's commentary, our favorite part of earnings calls are the analyst questions. Those are unscripted and can often highlight topics that management teams would rather avoid or topics where the answer is complicated. Here is what has caught our attention.
Our Top 5 Analyst Questions From Blue Bird’s Q3 Earnings Call
- Mike Shlisky (D.A. Davidson Companies) asked about the reliance on federal EV funding for guidance. CEO John Wyskiel explained that state mandates and a strong EV backlog support current forecasts, and future rounds are not critical for meeting targets.
- Eric Stine (Craig Hallum) questioned whether the commercial chassis launch would materially affect near-term results. CFO Razvan Radulescu confirmed its contribution will be minimal this year, with more impact expected in later years.
- Greg Lewis (BTIG) requested details on recent state incentive programs and EV backlog growth. Wyskiel noted state funding trends are broadly positive, with New Jersey’s recent program reflecting increased support across states.
- Sharif Elsabi (Bank of America) inquired about pricing mix shifts and tariff impacts in the second half. Radulescu responded that pricing should remain flat except for recently announced price increases, and ongoing tariff developments are being closely monitored.
- Chris Pierce (Needham) asked about competitive dynamics and school bus scheduling optimization. Wyskiel stated that while Blue Bird does not provide scheduling software, higher bus utilization has not yet affected order demand.
Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters
In upcoming quarters, the StockStory team will be monitoring (1) the pace of EV order intake as state and federal programs evolve, (2) the stabilization of backlogs and pricing as tariff policies develop, and (3) the initial ramp and customer reception of the new commercial chassis product. Execution on manufacturing automation and cost-saving initiatives will also be critical markers for Blue Bird’s sustained profitability.
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