Mondelez currently trades at $62.11 per share and has shown little upside over the past six months, posting a middling return of 2.8%. The stock also fell short of the S&P 500’s 12.1% gain during that period.
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Why Is Mondelez Not Exciting?
We don’t have much confidence in Mondelez. Here are three reasons you should be careful with MDLZ, plus one stock we’d rather own.
1. Demand Slipping as Sales Volumes Decline
Revenue growth can be broken down into changes in price and volume (the number of units sold). While both are important, volume is the lifeblood of a successful staples business as there’s a ceiling to what consumers will pay for everyday goods; they can always trade down to non-branded products if the branded versions are too expensive.
Mondelez’s average quarterly sales volumes have shrunk by 2.1% over the last two years. This decrease isn’t ideal because the quantity demanded for consumer staples products is typically stable. 
2. Projected Revenue Growth Is Slim
Forecasted revenues by Wall Street analysts signal a company’s potential. Predictions may not always be accurate, but accelerating growth typically boosts valuation multiples and stock prices while slowing growth does the opposite.
Over the next 12 months, sell-side analysts expect Mondelez’s revenue to rise by 2.6%, a deceleration versus This projection doesn’t excite us and implies its products will face some demand challenges.
3. EPS Trending Down
Analyzing the long-term change in earnings per share (EPS) shows whether a company’s incremental sales were profitable — for example, revenue could be inflated through excessive spending on advertising and promotions.
Sadly for Mondelez, its EPS declined by 3% annually over the last three years while its revenue grew by 5.6%. This tells us the company became less profitable on a per-share basis as it expanded.
Final Judgment
Mondelez isn’t a terrible business, but it isn’t one of our picks. With its shares trailing the market in recent months, the stock trades at 19.3× forward P/E (or $62.11 per share). Beauty is in the eye of the beholder, but we don’t really see a big opportunity at the moment. We’re pretty confident there are superior stocks to buy right now. We’d suggest looking at a dominant aerospace business that has perfected its M&A strategy.
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