PI Q1 Earnings Call: Inventory Strategies Adapt to Tariff Uncertainty as Growth Outlook Holds

RFID manufacturer Impinj (NASDAQ: PI) reported Q1 CY2025 results exceeding the market’s revenue expectations, but sales fell by 3.3% year on year to $74.28 million. The company expects next quarter’s revenue to be around $93.5 million, close to analysts’ estimates. Its non-GAAP profit of $0.21 per share was significantly above analysts’ consensus estimates.

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StockStory’s Take

Impinj’s first quarter results were shaped by steady enterprise demand and a complex inventory environment influenced by shifting tariff policies. Management attributed the quarter’s outperformance to higher-than-expected endpoint IC (integrated circuit) volumes, especially as partners adjusted inventory strategies to maintain geographic flexibility in response to tariff uncertainty. CEO Chris Diorio highlighted that the company’s technology is used on essential goods—such as apparel staples and supply chain logistics—helping to insulate the business from short-term economic swings. He stated, “We believe we are in a strong position to win in this. We have number one endpoint IC market share, after we took 85% of the industry's 2024 unit volume growth and that with most of the M800 ramp still ahead of us.”

Looking ahead, management’s guidance for the second quarter reflects confidence in both ongoing enterprise engagement and the anticipated benefits of new product ramps like the M800. CFO Cary Baker explained that while some channel inventory buildup is expected to persist due to ongoing geographic shifts in sourcing, Impinj’s exposure to direct tariffs remains limited. Guidance for profitability and margins anticipates ongoing operational discipline and improved product mix, with management emphasizing that consumer demand for tagged staples remains key to sustaining growth.

Key Insights from Management’s Remarks

Impinj’s management linked first quarter results to strong execution in a volatile environment, with operational and product-level choices driving both revenue and margin performance. The following insights detail the most influential factors this quarter:

• Tariff-driven inventory shifts: Partners strategically increased inventory balances to manage sourcing risks associated with tariffs, creating a temporary channel inventory buildup. Management noted this is a rational response to shifting production away from higher-tariff regions, not a sign of softening demand.
• Endpoint IC demand resilience: Steady demand for endpoint ICs, particularly in non-discretionary sectors like supply chain and logistics, helped maintain revenue even as retail and apparel segments underwent geographic sourcing transitions.
• Gen2X and M800 progress: The Gen2X technology, embedded in the M800 product line, enabled customers to expand coverage in overhead reading applications. This led to a large retailer deployment and is expected to continue fueling share gains as the M800 ramps further.
• Reader IC and systems strength: First quarter systems revenue exceeded expectations, driven by strong demand for Reader ICs. However, management anticipates a sequential decline in systems revenue next quarter due to timing and product lifecycle factors.
• Operational discipline: Lower operating expenses and careful inventory management contributed to higher-than-expected non-GAAP profitability, with management aligning investments to current revenue visibility and maintaining flexibility to respond to market shifts.

Drivers of Future Performance

Impinj’s outlook for the next quarter and beyond is shaped by enterprise adoption trends, product mix improvements, and ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties, particularly around tariffs and inventory strategies.

• Ongoing tariff uncertainty: Management expects continued volatility in inventory strategies among partners as they adapt to changing tariff environments, with geographic diversification in sourcing likely to persist.
• M800 and Gen2X ramp: The increased adoption of the M800 series and Gen2X technology is expected to benefit product gross margins, particularly if M800 becomes the primary volume driver in the second half of the year.
• Demand tied to consumer staples: The company’s products are primarily used on non-discretionary items, such as essential apparel and logistics, which management believes will help sustain demand even if broader consumer spending weakens. However, a major macro downturn would still pose a risk.

Top Analyst Questions

• Harsh Kumar (Piper Sandler): Asked about the potential impact of sustained or increased tariffs on demand and how Impinj is preparing for possible declines. Management emphasized they have not seen a demand drop yet and are investing to emerge stronger.
• Scott Searle (Roth Capital): Sought clarification on the new channel inventory equilibrium and product mix exposure. Management explained current inventory levels reflect partners’ strategies to manage tariff risks, and that a majority of endpoint ICs are used on staples rather than discretionary goods.
• Jim Ricchiuti (Needham & Company): Inquired about the anticipated decline in Reader IC revenue for next quarter and the ramp-up of M800’s impact on margins. Management attributed Q1’s higher Reader IC revenue to timing and expects gross margin improvement as M800 volumes increase.
• Christopher Rolland (Susquehanna): Asked if current inventory levels represent a new normal and whether Impinj’s retail volumes are insulated from tariffs. Management said inventory strategies have shifted due to tariffs, and most tagged products are non-discretionary, reducing risk from tariff-related demand drops.
• Guy Hardwick (Freedom Capital Markets): Requested an update on a major North American supply chain customer and whether shifting trade flows could affect inventory issues. Management responded that engagement remains positive and inventory changes are driven by strategic, not demand-related, reasons.

Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters

In the coming quarters, the StockStory team will be monitoring (1) the pace of normalization in channel inventory as partners adapt to shifting tariff and geographic sourcing strategies, (2) the continued ramp of M800 and Gen2X technologies and their impact on gross margins, and (3) progress on large customer deployments, including grocery and supply chain projects. The evolution of macroeconomic conditions and enterprise demand for tagged staples will also be critical signposts.

Impinj currently trades at a forward P/E ratio of 62.4×. Should you load up, cash out, or stay put? The answer lies in our free research report.

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