TD Ameritrade Investor Movement Index: June IMX Score Rises Despite Selling During Market Rally

Clients increased overall exposure but were net sellers of equities in the June IMX period, primarily reducing their exposure within the Consumer Discretionary, Industrials and Financials sectors.

The Investor Movement Index^® (IMX^SM) increased to 5.46 in June, up from its score of 5.12 in May. The IMX is TD Ameritrade’s proprietary, behavior-based index, aggregating Main Street investor positions and activity to measure what investors actually were doing and how they were positioned in the markets.

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The reading for the four-week period ending June 30, 2023 ranks “moderate low” compared to historic averages.

“In June, we again saw clients increasing their exposure overall, but net selling equities,” said Joe Mazzola, Director of Trading and Education at Charles Schwab. “We see this from time to time, including just last month. At a sector level, we did see strong buying interest in Information Technology, Health Care, and Consumer Staples, but clients were savvy in seizing some profit opportunities from names that soared during the month’s market rally.”

The June IMX period included macroeconomic catalysts and saw a rally in major equity indices as fears of further interest rate hikes and recession appeared to ease. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Employment Situation report at the beginning of the month reflected a marginal increase in the unemployment rate, bringing the figure to 3.7%. Nonfarm payrolls added 339,000 jobs, in line with the monthly average. Together, the data paints a picture of a job market that remains tight. The May Consumer Price Index (CPI) was released the morning of June 13th and rose 0.1%. The All Items index rose 4% for the 12 months ending in May, which was the smallest 12-month increase since May 2021. The shelter, used cars and food indices reflected the largest increases, while the energy index declined by 3.6%. Equity markets mostly traded sideways after the report was released.

The latter part of the June period was characterized by a continued stock market rally, led by the Nasdaq 100 Index ($NDX), which rose 4.65% for the month. The S&P500 Index ($SPX) rose 3.44%. The CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) fell 13.16% in June to 13.59 as skittishness gave way to more bullish indicators. The yield on the 10 Year T-Note rose 6.7% during the period, closing at 3.844%. The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell slightly during the period, closing at 102.91 as currency pressures moderated. Front month WTI Crude Oil futures were down slightly during the period, closing at 70.64.

Despite increasing exposure, TD Ameritrade clients were net sellers of equities overall during the period. Popular names bought included:

• Walt Disney Co. (DIS)
• Target Corp. (TGT)
• AT&T Inc. (T)
• Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ)
• C3.ai Inc. (AI)

Names net sold during the period included:

• NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA)
• Tesla Inc. (TSLA)
• Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD)
• Boeing Co. (BA)
• Meta Platforms Inc. (META)

Millennial Buys & Sells

TD Ameritrade millennial clients increased their exposure during the June IMX period and, like the overall client population, were net sellers of equities.

The overall TD Ameritrade client population and TD Ameritrade millennial clients were net buyers of Disney (DIS) in June; theme-parks continue to perform well, but the stock has been weighed down by the poor box office performance of some recent theatrical releases, as well as continued pressure on the media giant’s streaming business. Target (TGT) was also a favorite purchase of both the overall and TD Ameritrade millennial client population; the stock has been beaten down so far this year, but found a foothold during the June IMX period, rallying from a June 13th low of $125.08. AT&T (T) was also bought by both populations ahead of a late July earnings report. Shares bottomed in early June and traders may have seen this as an attractive entry point.

The overall and TD Ameritrade millennial client populations both sold strength in Nvidia (NVDA) as shares made a new high of $437.15 on June 20th. Shares of Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) also hit a new high in June, and both client populations took profits in the chip-maker. Finally, both the overall and TD Ameritrade millennial client populations sold Tesla (TSLA), which rallied sharply in June and ahead of its earnings report expected in July, perhaps due in part to the company’s reported strategy to build out an extensive “super charger” network that will service Tesla vehicles as well as those from other manufacturers.

Looking at S&P500 sectors, TD Ameritrade millennial clients bought most heavily in Health Care, Consumer Staples, and Communication Services, while selling was most prevalent in the Consumer Discretionary, Financials, and Industrials sectors.

About the IMX

The IMX value is calculated based on a complex proprietary formula. Each month, TD Ameritrade pulls a sample from its client base of funded accounts, which includes all accounts that completed a trade in the past month. The holdings and positions of this statistically significant sample are evaluated to calculate individual scores, and the median of those scores represents the monthly IMX.

For more information on the Investor Movement Index, including historical IMX data going back to January 2010, to view the full report from June 2023, or to sign up for future IMX news alerts, please visit www.tdameritrade.com/IMX. Additionally, TD Ameritrade clients can chart the IMX using the symbol $IMX in either the thinkorswim^® or thinkorswim Mobile platforms.

Inclusion of specific security names in this commentary does not constitute a recommendation from TD Ameritrade to buy, sell, or hold. All investments involve risk including the possible loss of principal. Please consider all risks and objectives before investing.

Past performance of a security, strategy, or index is no guarantee of future results or investment success.

Historical data should not be used alone when making investment decisions. Please consult other sources of information and consider your individual financial position and goals before making an independent investment decision.

The IMX is not a tradable index. The IMX should not be used as an indicator or predictor of future client trading volume or financial performance for TD Ameritrade. IMX data includes that from accounts of TD Ameritrade clients which recently transferred to our affiliate, Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., as part of our planned integration.

About TD Ameritrade

TD Ameritrade provides investing services and education to self-directed investors and registered investment advisors. A leader in U.S. retail trading, we leverage the latest in cutting-edge technologies and one-on-one client care to help our clients stay on top of market trends. Learn more by visiting www.tdameritrade.com.

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