I concluded a February 13, 2026, Barchart article on Bitcoin with the following:
Over the past few years, buying Bitcoin during periods of price weakness on a scale-down basis has been optimal, and historical trading patterns suggest this will be the case again. However, risk is always a function of potential rewards, and Bitcoin’s volatility makes it a highly risky investment or trading vehicle. The odds favor a price recovery, but the question remains: from what price level?
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As of March 11, Bitcoin had not made a lower low below $60,514.55 per token, the low from February 6, 2026, as the leading cryptocurrency consolidates.
Bitcoin is not running away on the upside but remains in a bullish long-term trend
The 20-year monthly chart shows that Bitcoin has the potential to remain in a bullish trend if it can hold above the August 2024 low.
The chart shows that while Bitcoin fell by more than 52% from its October 2025 record high to the February 6 low, it has not challenged the August 2024 low of $49,784.02 per token, a critical technical support level. Bitcoin bounced from the low on February 6, but at near $70,800 per token, the price is not running away on the upside.
Consolidation could be a bullish sign
After losing more than half its value at the February 6 low, Bitcoin has been consolidating between roughly $62,500 and $74,000 per token.
The three-month daily chart shows that Bitcoin has moved into a consolidation period. However, the consolidation has had a bullish bias, with Bitcoin making higher lows since February 6, reaching a high of nearly $74,000 on March 4, 2026.
COIN is a leading cryptocurrency platform
Coinbase Global Inc (COIN) is the largest U.S. cryptocurrency exchange, trading 50+ different digital assets. At around $197 per share on March 11, COIN had a market cap of over $51.896 billion. COIN trades an average of over 14.66 million shares daily. COIN shares tend to track Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency.
The daily six-month chart shows that COIN shares reached a high of $402.16 on October 10 and fell 65.35% to a $139.36 low on February 12. From the February 6 low to the March 4 high, Bitcoin recovered by 22.3%, while COIN shares move 53.2% higher from $139.36 to $213.50 per share.
COIN shares have recovered and have upside potential
Like Bitcoin, COIN shares are very volatile. Bitcoin has significant upside to its October record high, and COIN could have significant upside at below $200 per share.
While not perfectly correlated, COIN does track Bitcoin well. The monthly chart shows that COIN shares reached a record high of $444.64 in July 2025. The Trump administration has supported cryptocurrencies, and COIN’s CEO, Brian Armstrong, met privately with President Trump in early March before the President publicly accused banks of trying to undermine the pro-crypto GENIUS Act and urged passage of the Clarity Act in a Truth Social post.
I view COIN as a proxy for the cryptocurrency asset class
The administration’s continued support for cryptocurrencies supports COIN and cryptocurrency prices. President Trump wrote:
The U.S. needs to get Market Structure done, ASAP. Americans should earn more money on their money. The Banks are hitting record profits, and we are not going to allow them to undermine our powerful Crypto Agenda that will end up going to China, and other Countries if we don’t get The Clarity Act taken care of.
Given the correlation between COIN and Bitcoin, COIN remains a proxy for the cryptocurrency asset class. While highly volatile, a small allocation to the asset class could yield significant returns when prices recover. Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies continue to experience boom-and-bust price action. If the trend continues, buying COIN at the current level with a plan to add on a scale-down basis could be optimal when a substantial recovery occurs.
On the date of publication, Andrew Hecht did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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