Center of the Universemoslereconomics.com
The Site of Economist Warren Mosler
Euro zone services, gasoline demand, restaurants, hotels
November 23, 2020
Bad relapse after inadequate fiscal adjustments: The post Euro zone services, gasoline demand, restaurants, hotels appeared first on The Center of the Universe .
Jobless claims, Existing home sales, Euro construction
November 19, 2020
Still extremely high and now going higher: The large dip in sales was followed by a recovery, so the total sales over that time are about on track: Back into contraction: The post Jobless claims,...
Architecture billings, Housing starts, Real estate loans
November 18, 2020
Still in contraction: One unit starts are up but not enough to make up for the dip yet: And housing remains historically depressed, and more so when factoring in population growth: And lending growth...
Retail sales, Industrial production
November 17, 2020
The lost sales are water under the bridge as current sales growth has declined and leveled off as federal support for lost personal income fades: Same pattern here- big dip, but only a partial recovery...
Consumer sentiment, restaurants, Oil consumption, Covid
November 16, 2020
An already weak economy seems to be turning south: Deaths lag new cases by several weeks= they are going a lot higher: The post Consumer sentiment, restaurants, Oil consumption, Covid appeared first on...
Unemployment claims, Mtg purchase apps
November 12, 2020
Still over 700,000 new claims this long after the collapse: Still hasn’t recovered from the 2008 collapse: The post Unemployment claims, Mtg purchase apps appeared first on The Center of the Universe...
Employment, ADP, vehicle sales
November 06, 2020
Still down over 10 million jobs vs pre covid: The Cares Act expenditures are winding down… Private payroll recovery leveling off: Same pattern. Collapse, partial recovery, then sideways to down: The...
Personal income and consumption
November 02, 2020
Personal income, which includes gov transfer payments, is coming down in steps after spiking for the fiscal adjustments, and still remains a bit higher than it would have been as transfer payments wind...
Tags Emerging Markets
GDP, jobless claims, pending home sales
October 29, 2020
Partial recovery but recent data shows growth stalling while a large gap (unemployment) persists as tariffs, covid, and no additional fiscal support continue: The gap initially closed relatively...
Durable goods, Covid, Gasoline supplied
October 27, 2020
Still trending lower: More testing AND the % positive is up as new cases and deaths, which lag new cases, increase: Weakening: The post Durable goods, Covid, Gasoline supplied appeared first on The...
New home sales, Chicago Fed survey, Lumber prices, US survey
October 26, 2020
Trump looks to be losing by a substantial margin at the moment, which means to me that there won’t be a fiscal adjustment before January’s new Congress, and without a sufficient majority in the Senate...
Mtg purchase apps, Housing starts, Small business jobs
October 21, 2020
Becoming clear housing isn’t doing all that well: The post Mtg purchase apps, Housing starts, Small business jobs appeared first on The Center of the Universe .
Vehicle sales, Retail sales, Industrial production
October 16, 2020
Monthly sales rates peaked in 2016 when oil capex collapsed, then leveled off, then started sliding again with the tariffs, then collapsed with the covid shock, and have nearly recovered to the lower...
Unemployment, Small business, China exports
October 15, 2020
Still way high and moved up again- not good! The survivors are feeling a bit better: The post Unemployment, Small business, China exports appeared first on The Center of the Universe .
Jobless claims, electricity production
October 09, 2020
Consumer sentiment, job openings, trade, new US covid cases
October 06, 2020
Up a bit but still way down overall: Familiar pattern. Down big, partial recovery, downtrend resumes: And weak from covid and the tariffs: Moving in the wrong direction as flu season approaches: The...
Vehicle sales, real estate loans
October 05, 2020
Still very weak: Since April, sales have increased, but are still down 4.3% from last year. The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. Note: dashed line is...
Employment, durable goods orders
October 02, 2020
Leveling off at very low levels of total employment: This is not adjusted for inflation: The post Employment, durable goods orders appeared first on The Center of the Universe .
Mtg apps, ADP payrolls
September 30, 2020
Private businesses in the US hired 749K workers in September of 2020, the most in three months and above market expectations of a 650K rise raising hopes the labour market recovery strengthened. Still,...
Durable goods orders, air travel, hotel occupancy, gasoline supplied, miles driven, freight index
September 28, 2020
Same pattern- dip, partial recovery, leveling off and never got back to 2008 levels inflation adjusted: The post Durable goods orders, air travel, hotel occupancy, gasoline supplied, miles driven,...
Unemployment claims, Architecture index, New home sales
September 24, 2020
Slightly higher than last week as they remain alarmingly high: Same pattern- big drop, some recovery, leveling off at lower levels: Same pattern developing but sales holding up at least for now: The...
Consumer sentiment, Existing home sales, Services
September 23, 2020
Not looking good: Up from the massive setback as some sales were delayed rather than cancelled: The emerging pattern seems to be the big collapse, a partial recovery, and then a tapering off from...
Consumer sentiment, current account
September 19, 2020
The current account deficit in the US widened by $59 billion, or 52.9%, to $170.5 billion in Q2 2020, the biggest gap since Q3 2008. It is equivalent to 3.5% of the GDP, compared to 2.1% in Q1. It...
Industrial production, Retail sales
September 16, 2020
Looks like we’ve stopped digging out of the hole: Sales have returned, at least for now, though a lot of sales were lost ‘forever’ due to covid: The post Industrial production, Retail sales appeared...
Unemployment claims, JOLTS
September 10, 2020
Not much evidence things getting anywhere near back to normal: The post Unemployment claims, JOLTS appeared first on The Center of the Universe .
Loans, interest margins
September 05, 2020
Business precautionary draw downs of lines of credit caused the spike, followed by a contraction as operational needs contract: Growth in real estate loans is slowing: Consumer borrowing dropped with...
Options buying, employment
September 04, 2020
The gap closed but at a slower rate indicating the extent to which the economy remains subdued 6 months into the crisis: Interesting- never seem gov sharply procyclical like this: The post Options...
Trucks and cars, Jobless claims, Trade
September 03, 2020
Same large dip partial recover story: Down a bit but still way high this many months after the initial surge: The post Trucks and cars, Jobless claims, Trade appeared first on The Center of the...
Construction spending, payrolls, durable goods orders, NY Manufacturing
September 02, 2020
Growth has been working it’s way lower for a long time: Not much of a recovery here: Total orders for the last several months are way down: The post Construction spending, payrolls, durable goods...